The Flaw of Averages

Why did the statistician who couldn’t swim drown as he attempted to cross the river? He had been told that the average depth of the river was just three feet. Yet, he perished. That’s because the middle part of the river was nine feet deep. Dr. Sam Savage reminds us of that humorous story in his books and online tutorials. Nevertheless, many of us still succumb to the flaw of averages in our personal and professional lives. Sam teaches us a new skill — the arithmetic of uncertainty.

Interview Highlights

The gifted stats teacher who wanted to be a folk singer
The secret to keeping students from falling asleep after they have already worked a long day and the real estate of words
The chances of hitting a 10 percent margin on $50 million in sales
An advanced degree is not needed for Sam’s software
The arithmetic of uncertainty
What is means to bottle uncertainty
The odds of a web project getting done in six weeks (this is outstanding)
Rethinking a risk matrix
The basics of probability management
The origin of Monte Carlo analysis
“Having the wrong distribution is not entirely a problem.”

The Sam Savage Books

I read The Flaw of Averages in 2015. I asked Sam which book we should read first, that one or his new book, Chancification? Sam suggests reading Chancification first. This newer book also references key topics in the first book. Since I’ve read both, I concur. Read Chancification first. While The Flaw of Averages is not required, it will be a strong companion book if you want a deeper dive into certain big ideas in the newer book.